The Economic History Review

Uncertainty and the Great Slump†

Volume 73 Issue 3
Home > The Economic History Review > Uncertainty and the Great Slump†
Pages: 844-867Authors: Jason Lennard
Published online: April 3, 2020DOI: 10.1111/ehr.12970

Log in to access the full article.

Abstract This article investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the British interwar economy. The first type of evidence examined is qualitative. The historical record shows that contemporaries regularly reported the incidence and consequences of major uncertainty shocks. The second type of evidence analysed is quantitative. Based on a new index of economic policy uncertainty constructed from newspapers and vector autoregressions, the results suggest that uncertainty was an important source of economic fluctuations in Britain between the wars.